Higher inventory could help ease the pressure on prices this fall, but the talk about a housing-price “bubble” isn’t following suit.

What is a bubble? A little soap and water and a lot of hot air.

What is a housing-price bubble? The same thing.

Say you bought your house two years ago and paid $150,000. Then identical houses on either side of you sell for $300,000.

Thanks to the resulting comparables, your house is also appraised at $300,000, so you decide to take out a loan against the equity for $100,000 or cash out some equity by refinancing the higher amount at the current low fixed interest rate.

Applications for refinancing loans have skyrocketed to two-thirds of the total number of mortgage originations, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.

In effect, you are using your house as a checkbook, assuming that, when you go to sell, you’ll be able to pay off the mortgage and the loan and still have $50,000 – minus expenses – left over.

But when you sell your house, the factors that drove up the prices of the houses on either side of you – low inventory and low fixed mortgage rates – are gone.

Now, there are five houses like yours for sale on your street. And even though your house was appraised in the good times at $300,000, your real estate agent breaks the news that you cannot expect more than $125,000 for it.

A worst-case scenario, obviously, but for you, the bubble has burst and what you have on your face is not just a little soap and water.

If it makes you feel better, real estate industry experts are saying there is no bubble.

“The time has come to put this issue to rest,” said David Seiders, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.

“The nation’s home builders have said it, the Realtors have said it, and Alan Greenspan has said, in no uncertain terms: There is no such thing as a current or impending house-price bubble,” Seiders said.

What Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, actually said in congressional testimony was: “We’ve looked at the bubble question, and we’ve concluded that it is most unlikely.”

Greenspan attributed recent “sizable gains” in home prices to “the effects on demand of low mortgage rates, immigration, and shortages of buildable land.”

Given the local nature of real estate, it’s possible for prices to deflate in one area, but a nationwide “pop” simply isn’t in the cards, Lereah said.

Thank you Inquirer. Good to know I didn’t buy during a stupid time.

Speaking of housing The Inquirer is reporting that the new property tax increases are favoring the city’s rich.

Hallwatch.org is the very best local resource to investigate the property taxes. Check out the online toolset.

Yesterday I posted my story in five words or less, or attempted to at least.

Shelley’s keeping track of others doing the same. And it’s forming a song!

In anycase, it doesn’t seem right (no – not the song – the song is perfect). A few words aren’t enough (hey that’s five words too!). I do have a singular mission statement. A code I try and live by. But that’s not the same.

To summarize the story of my entire life as a five word phrase… I realize it’s an effort that people should try, but guess what? I think my story has changed based upon the hands I’ve been delt in life – and believe me – every hand I’ve played has led to a new story.

Maybe I shouldn’t use the poker metaphor – I stink at cards.

There maybe archtypes that I might subconsciously try and fit myself into. Yes I bet there are. Archtypes… what’s your archtype?

Joseph Campbell’s “The Hero with a Thousand Faces” came to mind when I posted what I did previously and I should have mentioned it.

If there is one story that we maybe following – unintentionally, but unavoidably – maybe it *is* the monomyth (also called The Hero’s Journey). Maybe. I think. Read the book. You decide.

I have a job that I love. I have friends who care about me, and whom I care about. I have a fiancee whom I love, and who loves me. We will be married next May, and we have enough money that we can afford to have both the wedding and honeymoon we want. I have parents with whom I am on such good terms that they will be retiring early and moving near me so they can be a more integrated part of the next phase of my life. I have been sober for almost three years.

I am blessed.

That’s Mark rising to the challenge of Michael Barrish: “we each have a story, often unknown to us, that we try all our lives to prove true. … It can usually be summarized in five words or less.?

So here goes mine….

I never thought I’d turn 30, and yes – I’m very happy for it 🙂 I’ve achieved such kid daydreams as stepping up on a stage and playing my own music for folks and having them enjoy it. Having a job I love, in an industry that is constantly new. Buying a house with my own down payment. With money that I earned from a career that was built on my own terms. Making it to the middle class. Not having to sleep with a can of industrial strenght roach spray anymore. Central air. Wow! Being married not only to a person I love, but to the one. The soulmate I can imagine sitting on rocking chairs with, talking about grandchildren someday, being the old cute couple that embarrases everyone around them 🙂 Quitting smokes not once – but twice (now final!). Having the greatest brother in the world and the best extended family anyone can have. Meeting and learning from numerous mentors across the years. And having some of the best friends I can imagine, who I should hang out more with (you know who you are – yes I am an asshole).

I am blessed too. Statistically – none of it should have happened.

Katie’s mom was telling me the other day… “you two sure have come a long way from Kensington havn’t you?” And that cuts to the quick on my story.

“Never tell me the odds.”

(bonus points if you know where I first heard it said)

I ramble *alot* each time I’ve quit smokes. Gonna be the last time man.

Played pool last night – didn’t suck – and didn’t smoke 🙂