Things were so hopeful. I went door to door in three wards yesterday in our get out the vote and I gotta tell ya, my legs are killing me. I had the option of going to three different election related parties, but choose a quiet night at home with Richelle, with some popcorn and some wine, to take in the results. The early exit polls reported were very positive, but then our appetites disappeared as the states fell one by one. Voters were saying a candidate?s morals and values weighted more importantly than the economy or the war on terror. We stayed up until 3:30 AM, our stomachs twisting and depression mounting.
Pennsylvania did its job. Philadelphia did its job. I feel proud of the reality-based community here. We came out in force and the efforts of MoveOn, ACT, and PA Victory, and so many other groups were impressive. I’m very happy to have been a part of that and to have met so many great folks. I feel very bad for Joe Hoeffel, Tim Kearney, and Ross Schriftman; all three were very deserving of the posts they were pursing, but at least Allyson Schwartz won. I’m looking forward to her serving us in Congress.
So what happened everyplace else? Well Bush and Kerry both reached out to their bases, and the Republican base has more reliable voters than the Democratic one. That?s the bottom line. This enabled Rove to craft a strategy that played just a few notes and played them well. The strategy allowed it to focus and ignore the rest of the country.
There will be those that say the Democrats lost because they didn?t communicate with their base well enough, for example, by nominating Dean, and if they did, they would have won. I don?t think so. The problem is the Democratic base isn?t as simplistic as the Republican one. It?s the big tent. It takes more to reach these folks, to let them know that their votes matter, that they have a candidate that has a chance to succeed. So many are disenfranchised don?t vote in the first place. In short ? they need a Bill Clinton.
Let’s get this clear: many, many more did vote this year. They voted in record numbers, and without them, it would have been a landslide in the G.O.P.’s favor. You have to take heart and know it is something to build on. Saddly, in proportion, Republicans are statistically more likely to vote, and that trend continues with this election. Trends like that can change. Importantly, candidates like Bill Clinton have shown a way to reach across the divide and encourage votes that might not normally happen.
I really like John Kerry. I like his story, I like what he’s done, I like his take on the issues, I like the way he thinks and I like his vision for the future. I felt he would be a great President who would work hard to fix the damage that’s been wrought these past four years. But it’s clear: the country is divided. But it’s not by political party. Don’t fall for that. It is divided by how it decides who to trust.
Did the Internet play a role in this campaign? Yes it did. It provided the tools for Democrats to get close, but in the end it all comes down to election day and turn out. No matter how good your operations are ? if the voters don?t come the polls, you?re not going to win.
Speaking of the polls, there 1754 election related incidents in Ohio and 26,990 incidents reported across America so far. This isn?t over yet. (Update: it is over, Kerry has conceded, even with all these election day incidents unresolved).
The stories and questions of this election:
1. Internet empowered community and campaigning works, but it all comes down to how many vote.
2. Morals, faith, and social issues matter (NYTimes). Get it through your head. You can?t win unless you recognize that a large portion of the country votes based on how they feel about a candidate instead of what they know. This is frustrating, and makes me want to run to Canada.
3. Simplicity in message and candidate matters (Slate). People trust things (people, messages, damn near anything) that seem simple. By and large, more people trusted Bush than Kerry. That’s despite the reality-based reasons they should have felt otherwise.
4. You can extrapolate this and ask yourself, what will become of the right to choose for women, and will gays and lesbians ever share the same spousal rights as the rest of us? Will the government’s increasing encroachment into our private lives grow? Will stem cell research atleast occur off shore? The Supreme Court is going to be changed for a generation and the Republicans still control all three legislative branches of government.
5. Where did the center go?
6. What role did the new voting machines (especially Diebold) play? Will we ever know the real winner?
7. How come the big discrepancy in exit polls vs. actual votes?
8. How did this election compare, numerically, to 2000? Did anything actually change? Bush won the popular vote. Think about it.
9. Bush was elected (yeah I know, shut up will ya) in 2000 without a mandate. He then pursued a radical agenda that divided this country. Will he look at the results and think he is justified to further his ideological aims (NYTimes) even more aggressively?
10. The results appear to be: 57 million to Kerry, 60 million to Bush, and 100 million to “Whatever”. “Whatever” wins again! With minimal campaign effort to boot (bogarted from a Metafilter thread but what the hell).
I am very proud of the those I worked with and look forward to continuing the friendships so many of us have started along the way.
Halliburton is having a good day on the stock market I hear. Oh well.
